This Weeks Predictions

This Week's Big Ten Picks and Predictions

Illinois over Indiana 45-17

Ron Zook's back is to the wall in Champaign and the Illini take out their angst on the Hobbling Hoosiers. Indiana is in free fall, and Kellen Lewis is supposedly hurt. The Illini stay on step ahead of the boogieman in this one. Ron Zook better have given his charges a wake up call, anfd the Hoosiers are the right medicine to set the table for the rest of the season.

OSU over MSU 24-21.

Game of the week in the Big Ten


Iowa over Wisconsin 24-10



Penn State over Michigan 44-10



Northwestern over Purdue-35-31



Last Weeks Big Ten Record:4 -1
Season Record: 11-4

Back from the brink

The best thing you can do when you see a really bad accident is to get away from it and not think about it.

Then you collect your thoughts and hopefully gain some perspective.

Unfortunately, my thoughts haven't changed at all from Saturday afternoon.

Ron Zook and the Illini laid an egg of epic proportions. This is the type of game that got Zook into trouble down at Florida. I have said all along that Zook will bring you some great victories that are out of left field, OSU last year is an example. But also promanent in the Zookian scheme of the universe is that he will bring you an epic shitfest, where you are left wondering, "Does this guy know what he is doing?"

The Minnesota game was Zook's David.

500+ yards of offense/ 8 trips into Minnesota territory yielding 6 points / 2 turnovers deep in our end of the field/ In ability to convert on 2nd and short, 3rd and short and 4th and short/ Special teams miscues only rivaled by those of the Bears. This was a game the Illini should have won by 3 td's and we get are asses beat?

(Note to Locks and Zook, they couldnt stop us deep down the middle of the field, make the call and the play. If an idiot like me can see that why can't guys getting paid the type of jack like they do see it?)

Zook is what he is, he hasn't learned from his mistakes. He pulls the same ol' cowboy crap at inoppurtune times that he always has. I can live with that, just don't fucking lose to Minnesota, at home, on Homecoming.

End of Rant

This Week's Big Ten Picks and Predictions

Illinois over Minnesota 28-17

The Illini shake the upstart Gopher's after three quarters. Illinois establishes the running game and wins the time of possession battle 35-25. Average production on the stat line: Juice 175 yds passing, 60 yds rushing 1 int. Dufrene 95 yards- Benn will go over a 100 yds receiving and limited production from Cumberland and Uh Oh. Benn will take one to the house in special teams. This is a game the Illini will grind out and win in unspectacular fashion. Illinois will have a red zone turnover this game. I hope I'm wrong but I think the Illini come out a little sluggish early in this one. Weber and Decker will move the ball early before being shut down.

MSU over NU 35-21. Sparty and Javon Ringer don't settle for field goals but get touchdowns in the red zone against the Cats. Way to much Wildcat love going around the Chicago area this week. This is the week the Cats are exposed talent wise on D. One wild card in this one is that 3 Michigan State starting DB's are dinged up. Dantonio is not saying how bad it is, so if all 3 are out the game could be more of a shootout. Also, Sutton didn't practice yesterday. If that guy is hobbled it always seems to be worse than reported and his production goes down. The Cats are way overvalued and this is the week the bubble pops.

Penn State over Wisconsin 31- 21 JoePa's boys keep the train running by smacking the Badgers up in Camp Randall. Bret Bielema changes quarterbacks and Clay emerges as the feature back over the overrated P.J. Hill. The Spread HD slows a little this week, as the Penn State D scores or sets up points on two occasions. The Badger's legendary home field advantage is being unwound faster than a Lehman Brothers Credit Default Swap. Jump Around!!!!

Iowa over Indiana 14-7 Two teams on a downward trend battle it out so their fan bases can continue living the dream of "Christmas in Detroit" Thigpen of IU is a home run threat, but Kellen "The more I see the more I do" Lewis continues to have more of the most fundamentally unsound turnovers, which doom the Hoosiers. Shon Green will pile up the yards as quickly as he piles up missed classes, but the offensive brain trust of Ricky Christensen, Jeff Stanzi, Kevin Ferentz, and Kirk O' Keefe will keep it close for the Hoosiers.

Ohio State over Purdue-52-17 The Buckeyes finally get sick of underachieving and lay the wood on the Boilers. Tiller continues his journey down to Leon Burtnettland.

Michigan over Toledo 38-14 Tough guy Dick Rod challenges the Weasels, thus toying with Michigan fan's emotions, getting them all puffy before an even more brutal fall against Penn State the following week. Toledo's coach scores huge on the Zingerman's deli tray, so the trip is not a total loss for the Rockets.

Last Weeks Record: 4-1
Season Record: 7-3

Tim Brewster

So Tim Brewster is coming back to Memorial Stadium as the head coach of the Golden Gophers. Tim Brewster, one of the cornerstones, of the great 83 team, made no bones about his desire to be the head coach at his alma mater. I was a Brewster backer after RT was let go, but from the available field of candidates. I think Ron Guenther made the right call in Zook. Tim hadn't learned on someone elses dime so to speak, and I don't know if he could have survived a year like he did last year at Minnesota at Illinois. Also, I think you can get players into Minnesota that you cant at Illinois. So I think the deal probably worked pretty well for both parties based on the Gophers record this year.

That said, I really think Tim is positioned to do well in the Twin Cities. Even though he got off to a brutal start last year, if Brewster can get the Gophers to a bowl this year, he is on the right track and all will be forgotten. My guess is if Brewster can get the Gophers to a Capital One type bowl in the future. If he does that and beats one of the top teams in the conference, he will become a fairly hot coaching commodity for a bigger job. He is a guy that I feel can really sell a program. Tim will be smart enough to jump from Minnesota, if they stage a Rutgers type run. (I bet Schiano is kicking himself right now) I just don't see Tim at Minnesota for the long haul. My guess is 5-6 years get the program competitive, open the new stadium, get to a Jan 1. bowl and then move on to bigger job probably in the Big 12, a Texas A & M type job.


Minnesota Thoughts

• I watched the IU -Minnesota game and was impressed with both Weber and Decker. Then I thought that in spite of all the yards those 2 put up, they only scored 1 TD. They put up 16 points many times with a short field. This, against Indiana, who is not exactly the second coming of the 85 Bears. I think Minnesota is one of those move it between the 20's teams that will bog down in the red zone against Big Ten competition. They scored 7 on OSU, before two late TD's in garbage time. I think if Illinois can get pressure on Weber, and hold Decker in check, Illinois can have some success on D against this offense.
• Given the stable of backs that Minnesota had during the Mason years Barber III, Maroney etc., isn't it odd that Minnesota has no current running game to speak of?
• Eric Decker is a great receiver, I like the way he finds an open spot in the zone and just sits down there. If there is an equivalent of the box and one zone d for football I would run it. Put Vontae as a spy on Decker jack him at the line and dog him all over the field. I think he is the only play maker on Minnesota who can beat the Illini. Weber will hopefully be neutralized by pressure and the porous Gopher line.
• The Metrodome will gladly be retired after this season as the home of the Gophers. Is there a worse college football environment in America than the Metrodome? Their new stadium looks pretty sweet, kind of a throwback to their old one.
• Did any team hold better and get away with it than the Gophers under Mason?
• Minnesota should pass a law against all gold or all maroon uniforms. Those things are crimes against humanity. That said I would like the Illini to break out an orange top/ blue pants combo at some juncture. That's the only Illini uniform combo, I don't think I have ever seen.

10 Faulknerian Random Thoughts

• One of Hank "The Hammer" Paulson's mentors was none other than my former neighbor, Bob Blackman. In fact he endowed the Dartmouth football head coaching position in Blackman's name to the tune of $2 million. I find it a little bit scary that the man entrusted to restore American capitalism through temporary socialism, was shaped by the same guy who couldn't remember his players names at Illinois. I guess there is some sort of cosmic symmetry in that Paulsen is attempting execute from deep in the Blackman playbook by callling the same cross field lateral on a kickoff that Lonnie Perrin and George Uremovitch succesfully pulled off in one of my first Illini games, only this time it is with the American capital markets and economy. At least his point guy on TARP is an Illini grad.
• The Steve Feagin news really bothered me. I felt kind of dirty for a few seconds that I ever rooted for the guy while he was in the O & B. I guess it shows that for every Howard Griffith, who carries our name high in life, there will always be someone there to sully it. Also who was the idiot at the DIA who put the clip of Harry Goisier leading the Illini onto the field in the History of Illinois football video that was shown at the Rededication game? That is one guy you want to forget was ever associated with the program. At least he went to Michigan also so he was not ours alone.
• I like Ron Turner as a football coach. I didn't always like him as a recruiter or program manager, but I always felt he represented us with class, and was really effective when he had the players, like in 01. I think the Bears are going to win the NFC North, because Turner's offense will continue to be productive, despite what the preseason prognosis was. He has more talent than we thought, and RT generally does pretty well in that position. I also think Harry Hiestedt has done a pretty good job so far this year. I also like the fact that I can appear much smarter than I am to my fellow Bear fans when I can say the is going to run this play or that play. It goes to show you that if a football mope like me knows whats coming, an NFL DC probably does also, and that the real game is on the player's, their talent, and their ability to execute.
• Why do I have more angst going into the Minnesota game at home than I did against Michigan on the road? I think the Illini win, but that this game will be closer than the Michigan game. You know Brewster is going to have his guys up emotionally and I think Timmy has a big chip on this shoulder coming in to Memorial Stadium for the first time. I hope we don't come out flat. This game can't be last seasons Iowa game. Also I think we should make Brewster wear his Illinois Renaissance throwback while coaching on Saturday.
• I think Troy Pollard is going to be a much bigger factor over the next two games. I also think that Regus is going to take one to the house on a kickoff or punt.
• With our move to the BTN, why are we still playing so many 11:00 am games? I thought we would move up to a couple 2:30 games. I hate 11:00 am games because it is a grind to get down on time from Chicago with my game day crew. It's like herding cats. I always feel rushed up until the time we get into the stadium. I do like the tailgating afterwards but getting down to CU is a bitch.
• Can you imagine trying to tackle Jeff Cumberland in the open field?
• Jeff Allen has done a great job, given his youth and inexperience over the last 2 weeks.
• Speaking of the Big Ten Network, Charissa Thompson looks much better as a blond. She was sporting a dark haired bottled look that didn't quite get it done last week at the IU - Minnesota game. A kind of a 2 am in a bar near Mattoon kind of look, if you will.
• You know your old when you vividly recall the Kent Kitzman 57 carry pounding the Gophers put on the Illini back in the Moeller years, '77 I think. That guy ran wild that day.

Michigan Recap

The Michigan game was a must win for the Illini. The went into the Big Shithouse and got it done. Juice played with the up most poise, and our playmakers/ skill position guys got it done. Most importantly the team didn't panic when they went down 11 in Q1. This game reminded me in a lot of ways of the 01 Purdue game. I think it shows that some of our team leaders are stepping up and embracing their roles. I have said all along that Illinois was the better than their record indicated. Now we need to play hard, avoid a let down with two inferior opponents from a talent perspective.

6 Good Things...

• Seeing a half empty Big House with time left on the clock.
• No turnovers
• The Illini players and coaching staff not panicking when we went down 14-3.
• O Line blowing up the Michigan D line in the 2nd half.
• Cumberland down the field in space is never a bad thing.
• Executing the offensive gameplan to our strengths. Locks called a good game, I especially liked his interview after the game where he is a dead ringer visually and vocally for Tone Loc. Hasta la vista Babbbyyyy.....

5 Bad Things.....

• Dere and Vontae need to live up to their reps. For all the crap Martez took, those two need to step up just as much if not more
• Continued struggles in the first half in the kick return game in the first half. You cant give up that kind of field position.
• Down the field blocking, holding and blocks in the back are negating too many positive plays
• Minor point but, lets get the TO first, before you try to scoop and score
• When are our DB's going to pick off a pass?

5 Big Ten Thoughts....

• WTF was Ferentz thinking on that 4th down call? Ferentz made some real boneheaded coaching calls in the MSU game
• Bret Bielema once again showing he is the second coming of Lou Tepper circa 1994
• Eric Decker of Minnesota is the type of receiver every team wished they had
• I like Michigan State, but Dantonio has away of letting inferior teams hang around til the end that will come back to bite him in the ass
• Isn't the Trib's Teddy Greenstein a little early in writing mouth breathing school girl in spring comparison articles between NU's 95 team and the overrated 08 team.

Illini to treat Ann Arbor like the whore she is

The Illini are +2.5 dogs heading into A2. I think Michigan is getting a lot of love because Bret Bielema is a really bad coach. The second half collapse of the Badger's was the second most epic coaching gift/ lay down I have ever seen. Number 1 is still the Greg Schiano/ Rutgers effort against Illinois in 05. Michigan makes those mistakes against Illinois, MSU, OSU , or Penn State and they get buried.

Illinois is getting beat up pretty well in every corner of the college football universe because we have lost two games, basically on the road. What people forget is that is that both Mizzou and PSU are ranked #5 &#6 in the polls respectively. Illinois is a legitimate top18-25 team, and most teams in the country would be 0-2 against those two teams. Plus, Illinois has had massive breakdowns in the kickoff return game, something that is fixable in my opinion going forward, that contributed to those losses.

Once thing that should help the Illini this weekend is that Michigan is a highly efficent, turnover machine . If our guys can be positive in that battle, we will win.

Michigan has a good, but not imposing "D", and their offense is god awful. If we can stretch the field a little bit in the vertical passing game, especially early, I think some things will definitely be there in the running game. All Wisconsin had to do was make one play down the field to loosen things up in the second half.

I expect our D will look better, not so much because we have done anything drastically to improve it, but because of the combination of: 1) Michigan's inept offense will make it look better, and 2) we will play with the emotion that was absent in the two revenue games.

I expect the Illini to get out to a 21-7 lead, Michigan will tighten the game up, and then we will score both on offense and on D, or via a set up by the D late.

Last year we got out to the start we needed against a much more talented Michigan team, but our immaturity and not having been there before showed. I expect the Illini to play a good game this weekend and surprise a lot of people. Illinois is way undervalued & thanks to the Badger's ineptitude- Michigan is way overvalued.

Prediction Illinois 31-17

Loren Tate would tell you that this is not possible, and will have some back to Tom Harmon Era refrence to prove it, but this is not the Michigan we know and hate. This is the football verison Tommy Amaker Michigan.

5 things I want to see:

Jeff Cumberland touches down the field or on an end around

Less than 2 turnovers, have to be + in this game

Vontae and Dere playing their technique by the book

No BS holding calls, legitimate or not, that kill drives

Playing with a high level of emotion, but not being manic like last year that resulted in a lot of negative plays and penalties

5 things I don't want to see:

Bill LeMoinier- he will find a way through replay to screw Illinois

Kickoff return breakdowns- no points or points set up in this part of the game is critical

Dufrene running tentative because of injury, or being ineffective because of it

Continued poor technique on LB/ Safety drops in coverage. Martez has been taking a beating this week, I went back and watched the tape. He didn't play as bad as I first thought. The whole LB unit needs to step up, I expect to see a lot of nickle this week.

The Cowboy Zook persona needs to remain in Champaign, no high risk short yardage situations. Ron needs to play everything by the book on short yardage and extra points.


General Big Ten thoughts:

Ohio State- Beanie is still hurt, I don't care what they say. OSU has struggled against Wisconsin, but the Bucks will win this game, as people continue to build up the legend that is Terrell Pryor. Terrell Prior is going to be great someday, but his throwing motion is pathetic, and it will cost the Buck in a game this year in terms of picks. This wont be the game. The OSU D is less than impressive this year, APB for James Lauernitis. But the Vest gets it done in Mad Town vs. a highly overrated Badgers team and coaching staff. The Ballcarrier says: Hold

Wisconsin- Evridge is awful. Bielema is awful , that combination along with the overrated OC Paul Chryst (someone called him the Best in the Country in one preview show I was watching, it could have been DiNardo, nevermind), spells doom for the Badgers. The Ballcarrier says: Sell, turn those machines back on and SeLLLLLL

Penn State- The Spread HQ is the real deal. I can see the Lions running the table in JoePas last rodeo. Best team in the Big Ten. I like the QB and their 1-2 running back punch. The Ballcarrier says: Strong Buy

Michigan- The Wolverines have had their moment in the sun, now back to the grind.
.500 the rest of the way home The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued.

Iowa- Iowa is the Lehman Bros circa June of the Big Ten, they blew a big lead against the Cats and now the faithful are thinking doom and gloom and unsure if they can ride it out. Norm Parker's D will be effective against Sparty, but no offense will doom the Hawks. The Ballcarrier says: Short

Michigan State- Two things concern me with Sparty: Jevon Ringer is racking up carries like no ones business, and Hoyer cant make a play for his life down the field in the passing game. If Ringer starts to break down, and MSU reverts to their usual late season swoon, the Spartans will start to falter. MSU needs to be 6-1 before hosting OSU. The Ballcarrier says: Buy.

Minnesota- This is a statement game for the Brew Crew. If they can beat IU, they will be showing progress. I like what Tim is doing in the Twin Cities. The Ballcarrier says: Long term buy

Indiana- Huge game for IU, if they lose to Minnesota, the Hoosiers could go into a death spiral. I think they are actually a better team with Chappell at QB than Kellen Lewis. Kellen Lewis is not the guy I want running my team, character wise, if they go into a slide. My guess is Bill Lynch knows that also. The Hoosiers also might start hitting the wall regarding the Hep situation. The Ballcarrier says: Sell

Purdue- This team is running on fumes. This team is going down faster than Barney Frank at the House Page Christmas party. Curtis Painter might be replaced, as he has been highly ineffective, and you have to wonder if Joe Tiller is already fishing mentally in Wyoming. They looked awful against ND. The Ballcarrier says Sell

Northwestern- Idle this week, Cats fans will have to be content to continue to apply purple lube and play with themselves that they are a real contender in the Big Ten. I saw one of the computer polls had the Cats in the Top Ten... please. This team is not anywhere close to being in the Top 25. Probably not in the Top 50. The Northwestern D is the Bizarro Superman of Illinois D. Whereas, Illinois is a statistical doormat due to playing the highly productive offenses of PSU and Mizzou, Northwestern's resurgent D will be exposed when they actually play someone with real offensive talent. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued

Big Ten Predictions: Last Weeks Big Ten Record 3-2/ 3-2 Season
Illinois over Michigan 31-17
Indiana over Minnesota 34-28
Michigan State over Iowa 24-10
Ohio State over Wisconsin 28-14
Penn State over Purdue 41-10