The Illini are +2.5 dogs heading into A2. I think Michigan is getting a lot of love because Bret Bielema is a really bad coach. The second half collapse of the Badger's was the second most epic coaching gift/ lay down I have ever seen. Number 1 is still the Greg Schiano/ Rutgers effort against Illinois in 05. Michigan makes those mistakes against Illinois, MSU, OSU , or Penn State and they get buried.
Illinois is getting beat up pretty well in every corner of the college football universe because we have lost two games, basically on the road. What people forget is that is that both Mizzou and PSU are ranked #5  in the polls respectively. Illinois is a legitimate top18-25 team, and most teams in the country would be 0-2 against those two teams. Plus, Illinois has had massive breakdowns in the kickoff return game, something that is fixable in my opinion going forward, that contributed to those losses.
Once thing that should help the Illini this weekend is that Michigan is a highly efficent, turnover machine . If our guys can be positive in that battle, we will win.
Michigan has a good, but not imposing "D", and their offense is god awful. If we can stretch the field a little bit in the vertical passing game, especially early, I think some things will definitely be there in the running game. All Wisconsin had to do was make one play down the field to loosen things up in the second half.
I expect our D will look better, not so much because we have done anything drastically to improve it, but because of the combination of: 1) Michigan's inept offense will make it look better, and 2) we will play with the emotion that was absent in the two revenue games.
I expect the Illini to get out to a 21-7 lead, Michigan will tighten the game up, and then we will score both on offense and on D, or via a set up by the D late.
Last year we got out to the start we needed against a much more talented Michigan team, but our immaturity and not having been there before showed. I expect the Illini to play a good game this weekend and surprise a lot of people. Illinois is way undervalued & thanks to the Badger's ineptitude- Michigan is way overvalued.
Prediction Illinois 31-17
Loren Tate would tell you that this is not possible, and will have some back to Tom Harmon Era refrence to prove it, but this is not the Michigan we know and hate. This is the football verison Tommy Amaker Michigan.
5 things I want to see:
Jeff Cumberland touches down the field or on an end around
Less than 2 turnovers, have to be + in this game
Vontae and Dere playing their technique by the book
No BS holding calls, legitimate or not, that kill drives
Playing with a high level of emotion, but not being manic like last year that resulted in a lot of negative plays and penalties
5 things I don't want to see:
Bill LeMoinier- he will find a way through replay to screw Illinois
Kickoff return breakdowns- no points or points set up in this part of the game is critical
Dufrene running tentative because of injury, or being ineffective because of it
Continued poor technique on LB/ Safety drops in coverage. Martez has been taking a beating this week, I went back and watched the tape. He didn't play as bad as I first thought. The whole LB unit needs to step up, I expect to see a lot of nickle this week.
The Cowboy Zook persona needs to remain in Champaign, no high risk short yardage situations. Ron needs to play everything by the book on short yardage and extra points.
General Big Ten thoughts:
Ohio State- Beanie is still hurt, I don't care what they say. OSU has struggled against Wisconsin, but the Bucks will win this game, as people continue to build up the legend that is Terrell Pryor. Terrell Prior is going to be great someday, but his throwing motion is pathetic, and it will cost the Buck in a game this year in terms of picks. This wont be the game. The OSU D is less than impressive this year, APB for James Lauernitis. But the Vest gets it done in Mad Town vs. a highly overrated Badgers team and coaching staff. The Ballcarrier says: Hold
Wisconsin- Evridge is awful. Bielema is awful , that combination along with the overrated OC Paul Chryst (someone called him the Best in the Country in one preview show I was watching, it could have been DiNardo, nevermind), spells doom for the Badgers. The Ballcarrier says: Sell, turn those machines back on and SeLLLLLL
Penn State- The Spread HQ is the real deal. I can see the Lions running the table in JoePas last rodeo. Best team in the Big Ten. I like the QB and their 1-2 running back punch. The Ballcarrier says: Strong Buy
Michigan- The Wolverines have had their moment in the sun, now back to the grind.
.500 the rest of the way home The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued.
Iowa- Iowa is the Lehman Bros circa June of the Big Ten, they blew a big lead against the Cats and now the faithful are thinking doom and gloom and unsure if they can ride it out. Norm Parker's D will be effective against Sparty, but no offense will doom the Hawks. The Ballcarrier says: Short
Michigan State- Two things concern me with Sparty: Jevon Ringer is racking up carries like no ones business, and Hoyer cant make a play for his life down the field in the passing game. If Ringer starts to break down, and MSU reverts to their usual late season swoon, the Spartans will start to falter. MSU needs to be 6-1 before hosting OSU. The Ballcarrier says: Buy.
Minnesota- This is a statement game for the Brew Crew. If they can beat IU, they will be showing progress. I like what Tim is doing in the Twin Cities. The Ballcarrier says: Long term buy
Indiana- Huge game for IU, if they lose to Minnesota, the Hoosiers could go into a death spiral. I think they are actually a better team with Chappell at QB than Kellen Lewis. Kellen Lewis is not the guy I want running my team, character wise, if they go into a slide. My guess is Bill Lynch knows that also. The Hoosiers also might start hitting the wall regarding the Hep situation. The Ballcarrier says: Sell
Purdue- This team is running on fumes. This team is going down faster than Barney Frank at the House Page Christmas party. Curtis Painter might be replaced, as he has been highly ineffective, and you have to wonder if Joe Tiller is already fishing mentally in Wyoming. They looked awful against ND. The Ballcarrier says Sell
Northwestern- Idle this week, Cats fans will have to be content to continue to apply purple lube and play with themselves that they are a real contender in the Big Ten. I saw one of the computer polls had the Cats in the Top Ten... please. This team is not anywhere close to being in the Top 25. Probably not in the Top 50. The Northwestern D is the Bizarro Superman of Illinois D. Whereas, Illinois is a statistical doormat due to playing the highly productive offenses of PSU and Mizzou, Northwestern's resurgent D will be exposed when they actually play someone with real offensive talent. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued
Big Ten Predictions: Last Weeks Big Ten Record 3-2/ 3-2 Season
Illinois over Michigan 31-17
Indiana over Minnesota 34-28
Michigan State over Iowa 24-10
Ohio State over Wisconsin 28-14
Penn State over Purdue 41-10
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment