Michigan

I truly despise the University of Michigan and their football program. I loathe their fight song and their stupid fake winged helmets. I hate the "Big House", the most overrated stadium in college football.

I think it is because of the pure arrogance the institution exhibits, I always think to myself, "If you guys are the "Leaders and Best" explain Detroit".

Michigan has been a highly successful program over the past 50 years. I think Dick Rod will get them turned around in the short term but the glory will be brief. As fickle Rich will turn on the Wolverines and bolt for greener pastures. This is of course once his loan for his buyout to WVU is repaid.

Why? I think the University of Michigan and their athletic programs are in for a period of long decline compared to history because capital resources and budgets will be constrained for years to come and Michigan will not be able to keep up with the Jones. Unfortunately their arrogant fan base will not recogonize their diminished place in the cosmos and demand what they view as their birthright.

Michigan has become a larger version of West Virginia, Dick Rod just doesnt know it yet.

Why is Michigan more like West Virginia than Illinois, Wisconsin or Minnesota?

The State of Michigan is economic free fall. How do economics and football interact? In a very subtle way.

Big time football is a capital intensive business. For years, the University of Michigan enjoyed a very beneficial relationship with the auto industry. Population trends, jobs, money, capital investment flowed freely and positivelyto the benefit of the U of M, and the athletes came and prospered in a stable middle class, or were in the state as remnants of it. Michigan benefited from the great migration from the south, and it will be harmed by it converse which is taking place under the surface for the past 15 years. Drive around the North side of Chicago and count the bars flying U of M and MSU flags. A lot of their alumni are in Chicago, why? - because they can get a job, which they cant do in Detroit.

The world that the U of M prospered in their home state does not exist anymore, and it never will again. Michigan will still be a good school and will still draw a sizeable following, but it cant offer athletes the advantages it has historically.

In the future, a growing state population, with a stable economic forecast will be of up most importance. I think Illinois is positioned fairly well in this regard in the grand scheme of things.
Michigan is not. Dick Rod might win a few games with the spread, but the long term trends and economic realities tell you that the sustained success that Michigan has enjoyed is as distant as a $30.00 per hour union job in Flint.

Mendenhall

Sorry to see RM5 got hurt last night, and is likely out for the season, or for an extended time. Even with all the BS between the Mendenhall family and Zook and Illinois, I still root for RM5 just as hard as I did when he wore the Orange & Blue. I thought Rashard looked pretty good in there for the Steelers, and I liked the fact the took on 2 hard blitzes. I hope Rashard fully heals and goes on to a long productive NFL career.

I also hope that Rashard can heal his relationship with Illini Nation. Whatever went down between the Mendenhalls and Zook, neither side benefits from it.

I have heard both sides of the tale which has been rehashed and assigned blame to a fault, and am reminded of the Bobby Evans' quote from "The Kid Stays in the Picture", " There are three sides to every story. My side, your side, and the truth. And no one is lying. Memories shared serve each one differently"

Zook is the coach of the team and has an objective resposibility to put those on the field who are the best players, and give Illinois the best shot of winning. So I understand his position in the matter.

Mrs Mendenhall is an advocate for he sons, she is not objective, nor should she be. Having kids who play sports, I understand that parents are not objective, which is a big part of the problem in youth sports. Most parents just do'nt go a spublic and vocal as Ms. Mendenhall.

The problem here is in the execution and the communication of what went down, it worked for nobody, all parties lost on the deal.

I may be naive but I would love to see Zook invite Rashard back to campus this fall for an Illini game, try to get to a common ground and productively heal and move on for both parties. It may not seem like it, but both parties will benefit greatly in the long run by being on the same side.

Penn State Recap

The Penn State game played out pretty much as I thought it would with the exception of the TD on the kickoff return, which I will speak of later. Where does that leave the 2-2 Illini?

About where I thought we would be.

Lets face reality, we lost competative games to two of the top eight teams in the country. We are a Top 18- 25 team. Also, both of those teams have top five high octane offenses, which hurts Illinois disproportionately.

In my mind, the Illini needed to go 2-1 against the trioka of Michigan, Wisconsin, & Penn State. Right now, Penn State is the best team in the Big Ten. Wisconsin is much worse than I thought they would be, and Beilma is arguably the worst coach in the Big Ten. Michigan is about what I thought they would be, a .500 team. Both, Michigan and Wisconsin have bad offenses, which helps the Illini. Ohio State, I had chalked as an Illini loss, have the Bucks and the Lions switched places?

I still think we go 2-1 in this three game test, but Michigan is a chip on the sholder statement game for the Illini- on the road, in the Big Outhouse. Illinois needs to bring it and define themselves.

The 2008 version of the Weasels is not any where near PSU, Mizzou, or USC in terms of talent or ability. I think the Illini get it done. Let party like its 1999!!!!

5 Good Things...

Playing competatively with PSU in an amazing game day environment

Benn down the field

Dufrene and the running game played well

O Line was competative, looked much better than the first three games.

The plays are there to be had, its just time to execute!!!!

6 Bad Things

Kickoffs for TD's at a time when Big Mo is changing......WTF? Remember Big Mo is a fickle mistress. Lets kick it to guys who can take it to the house, after we have had momentum changing drives, thats a sound strategy. Instant Buzz Kill. Lets be smart about kickoffs, and if we need a few more playmakers out there, determine the risk/return of injury, but right now we are paying out huger claims on this, get playmakers on the f'in field if we need to. If need be, squib it after these big plays, it keeps momentum in check, and we live to fight on. Also, find a kicker who can get it in the endzone consistantly, everyone else seems to have one why not us?

This coverage unit needs a complete overhaul, bailout and fix, Hank Paulson style right now!!!!

Linebacker play- this unit is not working. Tez has been discussed to death. I hate to say it, but play him like Simeon Rice/ DE in passing downs and adjust the coverages? Pressure could help bail out alot. Do you move Carson to MLB, move Brit outside, and move Tez, to an area where he has less coverage responsibility, I dont know but this unit needs to figure it out real quick.

Vontae's freelancing- I am afraid he is never going to change

Cumberland's lack of touches- you have to get this guy the ball in space down the field

Defensive Scheme- if we need to run a 4-2-5 lets do it full time. This Cover 2 type bs is getting us killed against good offenses, they just gash us in the same places time and time again.

Cowboy Zook - Zook needs to stop the cowboy stuff in Q3, I know Guenther has talked to him about it, but Zook needs to have someone in this ear in the third quarter as a voice of reason because that is where a lot of his bonehead coaching moves seem to happen. Zook never seems to correctly price the downside vs. the upside risk during this point of the game.


5 Big Ten thoughts

Northwestern is the worst 5-0 team in the history of college football

Has any player in recent memory depreciated faster than Curtis Painter. He is the leading canidate for the Wagner Lester Award

Were Beilma and the Wisconsin QB channeling their inner Lou Tepper and Mark Hoekstra in A2 on Saturday. Love the one and a half step drop, nice techique there Bucky

How to beat Michigan State... Put 8 in the box to stop Ringer and pull a Bobby Conrad and put a Duracell battery on you shoulder and say to Hoyer, "I dare ya to knock it off" by beating me down the field in the verticle passing game. My guess is he wont. For all the crap regarding accuracy Juice has taken, he is Six Sigma Blackbelt compared to Hoyer.

Ohio State, Beanie is still hurt and my guess is will be all season. Terrell Prior will have a 3 to 4 turnover game. The question is it against MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin or Penn State, and the Bucks potentially lose, or does he get away with it against Purdue or Northwestern and it is a learning experience in a Bucks win.

Illini 0pponents- The Ghosts of the Past, Present and Future

Ghost of the Past- USC

After watching an average Org. St. team beat the Men of Troy, you have to ask yourself, that given the pure talent level that is in the USC program, and has run through that program in the recent past, has there ever been a coach that has achieved less with more than Pete Carroll?

Given the advantages that Carroll has enjoyed over the past couple of years- no pro team in LA, the decline of UCLA, the off the field (cough, cough) $upport that the LA community gives his players and recruits, and the hear no evil, see no evil university administration ( lets let a guy charged with a felony on Tuesday play on Saturday), how has he not won 5 conecutive national titles? That is a team with the talent level to do so every year, including this one, going away by a wide margin. Carroll is basically running a pro team, and he underperformed badly the past 3 years.

What would be really interesting if Carroll were to coach a team like Northwestern this year. My guess is that a 3-9 record, bottom of the conference finish would be in the offing. Carroll already showed his ineptitude in the NFL, he is now showing it at the college level.

Ghost of the Present- Penn State

All the chicken littles are applying the transitive property of margin to this weeks Illinois/ Penn State game. Penn State beat Org State by a wide margin and Org State beat USC so PSU will beat the Illini by 35....Please

Illinois needs to come out and compete against PSU, show emotion, eliminate stupid mistakes and play their game. Penn State is a good team, probably the best we will face the rest of the way. The Illini need to have a plan similiar to the OSU game last year, get the crowd out of it and go hard every play. If Illinois could get out of Happy Valley with a W, the schedule sets up real nicely the rest of the way.

One thing Zook's track record tells us, his teams will beat someone they are not supposed to, and they will lose to someone they are not supposed to. I am more concerned about the removal of the latter as a trend than the former. I see Illinois going 3-1 over the next 4 games, which in my mind puts them on track for 9-3/8-4 season.

BTW, I think this is the last time the Illini see JoePa.

Ghost of the Future- Fresno State.

Ron Guenther has been taking a beating over scheduling a home and home with Fresno State. While I agree there is little upside in playing the Bulldogs, two wins is neutral push, I am also starting to feel a groundswell of change in how AD's will have to schedule in the future given that cupcake revanue games do little for you in the grand scheme of things, and less for you if you are a team in Illinois position. No team should ever play more than 2 revanue games if you are in the upper division of a BCS conference.

If I were the Illini AD, here is how I would schedule, assuming Mizzou is more or less a permanent fixture on our schedule:

Home games 6/7 Away games 5/4 Neutral site 1

You are going to have to alternate having six and seven home games every other year. Here is how I would schedule it:

Game 1: Home Cupcake- In State- ISU/ EIU/ WIU- a tune up and a W

Game 2: Mizzou home and home- Lose the St Louis thing, better for both teams to play in their own buildings- Mizzou is a nice quality victory if you beat them coming off their recent run. 50/50 probability of a W

Game 3:Cupcake- Revanue- Middle Tenn Florida A & M etc. tune up build depth- this is your hammer/ highlight tape game 50+ points, a W

Game 4; Home and Home Lower profile BCS conf opponent or historically significant name team- - Iowa State, Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Navy, Baylor- significant name- SMU, Rice, Army- Game you will win most years, but is not embarrassing if you lose. Schedule programs that are historically inferior to yours. Occasionaly, a Rutgers type success will emerge, but I will take my chances. 80% probability of a W


So basically you have 3 home games 1 away game out of conference, because you alternate the
Mizzou game and the Game 4 as one home and one away. Projected record 4-0 Best Case- 3-1 Probable case

Neutral Site- Northwestern- Soldier Field- Big Ten Opener- Week 5- Every year

Create a Bowl type atmosphere every year in the last week of September or the First Week of October. Who wants to sit though a game in late November when it is horrible outside in front of 20k in Evanston? Make this game an event, it is the most underutilized opportunity on our schedule. How many alums do we have in Chicago? Forget the Washington State fiasco, a conference game insures attendence- also make it part of both teams season ticket package- Problem solved!!!

Plus, the Illini should hammer the Cats every year, make this game important again- make it the nose of the dog instead of the tail where the Illini have more downside. Plus a 4-1 or 5-0 record creates positive momentum into the season.

Conference Schedule 3/4 home 4/3 away.

Some will balk at a minimium of only 3 conference games at home, but I think this is a better scheduling philosophy. A 4-4 record which is the bare minimium threshhold in my mind for Illini Bowl participation gets us a 7-5 record. A 6-2/ 9-3/ 10-2 sets us up for a New Years day bowl. Anything higher BCS

These revanue games are increasingly becoming a joke that does little else than fill space on the schedule, we have empty seets and discounted ticket prices.

What is giving Illini fans the most heartburn this year? An uninspired flat win against the Ragin Cajuns. If IU and Minnesota's model is to go 4-0 NC/ 2-6 in the Confrence and make it to the Motor City Bowl, what good is that in the end and is that a success? Play 13, bullshit- Play in a good bowl!

Illinois is at a place where 9-3 records should be the norm. Good years should produce a BCS bowl, and down years should be a minimium 7-5/ lower bowl. I know this is above historically levels, but I feel that Illinois is in a better position for sustained success.

The Masonization of scheduling across the country produces a lot of crappy teams being bowl eligible, Illinois at this point should point higher. I think this is a schedule that gets them there in the best fashion

Loren Tate

Reading Loren Tate is one of the guilty pleasures of an Illini fan. 75% of the time, I strongly disagree with him. The other 25% , I think he is dead on. Now the internet/ new media has eroded Loren's information advantage, but he is still a good read.

I dig the fact he will come at you with a Cy Vaughn and Bobby Eisner reference, as he did in his last column, when the 99% of all Illini fans have no idea who these guys are and their connection to Illini sports. Loren is like a living historian/ grudge recepticale for all the wrongs that have been done to the Illini, germanting in his East Central Illinois bubble, largely oblivious to the changes in the world going on around him.

Loren's mission statement is that all freshman should be redshirted, Illinois will never compete with Michigan and Ohio State in football, and Chicago is not part of Illinois. I disagree stongly with all these statements now more than ever, but Loren is the cranky old Uncle at thanksgiving who says I told you so.

Penn State Week

The Illini are decided dogs heading into Happy Valley. I like it. Illinois has been a team without a real identity. It is scary to agree with the analytical insights of Bob Davie, but he is right.

In the Mizzou game our passing offense looked good. We ran the ball like we should against EIU, with a basic game plan. The game against the Ragin Cajuns was a sleep walk. Now we are on to Penn State, and everyone is wondering which team will show up?

The defense needs to solidify its first team in the Big Ten, and play with hightened emotion and effort. We still have a big talent drop off between the first and second teams on this unit. Linebacker is my biggest concern. Against PSU, we will need to have our linebackers and safeties step up play better in space than they have been to date. If that unit can solidify, and Locksley can come up with, and execute a gameplan where we get out to a lead in the first half, I like our chances.

As for PSU and the vaunted Spread HD, I am not" all in" on these guys. Look who they have played: Costal Carolina- very bad. Syracuse- worst BCS conference team in the country. Temple- long term, should drop football bad, and the OSU Beavers, bad Pac Ten team. I think every team in the Big Ten would be 4-0 against that slate. That said, PSU has smoked them all, but you wonder what will happen when the see a talent upgrade. Plus Joe Pa and his coaches do'nt really impress me when it comes to game planning.

In a nutshell, I think Illinois is currently undervalued due to the non- emotion/ underperformance in the ULL game, and PSU is overvalued due to a weak schedule. PSU has a decided atvantage playing at home, and I think the game will be closer than the betting line indicates.

5 things I want to see:

Rejus getting the ball down the field, the bubble screen is a poorly executed running play

If we have third and one ditch the gun unless Juice is going to carry it

Donsay Hardeman and Jeff Cumberland

Josh Brent not making stupid penalties going forward

Verticle passing like Mizzou- Duvault and Judson streching the field, with Rejus dragging the mid range route with Uh Oh as the safety valve


5 things I dont want to see:

Offensive line contining to struggle

Stupid penalties in crucial situations

Continued emotional flatness- this is the Big Ten boys

Poor technique on LB/ Safety drops in coverage

Bill LeMoinier

Predictions:

PSU 27 Illini 21

Illini record in first half of Big Ten 3-1

General Big Ten thoughts:

Ohio State- Now that Terrell is #1 and Beannie is "supposedly" back in the saddle, things are good in Buckeyeland-----not----Terrell will be good at the QB position for the Bucks in the future, but he is an accident waiting to happen right now. His current throwing motion is a step above that of a girl. Terrell will have more int's than TD's by the end of the year. The Buckeye faithful think the Big Ten will be a walk, but I see two losses for The Vest and his minions. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued

Wisconsin- You get what you expect with the Badgers. Good road win at Fresno State in a trap game (Why Ron Guenther Why?), but the annual weardown of PJ Hill is just starting for the softest big time player in the Big Ten. The Badgers will continue to do what they do, but are prone to losing the big games and those on the road. Bielma is the most overated coach in the Big Ten. The Ballcarrier says: Hold

Penn State- Clearly Joe Pa's boy's are better than last year and are one of the favorites for the conference title, but who have they played? Joe Pa is always subject to being outschemed, but the talent is there- The Ballcarrier says: Buy the team, but hedge the Spread HD

Michigan- Dick Rod will get it done someday in A2, but this is the year to get your licks in. Wrong players for this scheme will lead to a sub .500 record, but the Weasles will rise up and sting someone at the top half of the league. Is it me or is Sam McGuffie, the white Rocky Harvey?-The Ballcarrier says: Restructuring with a strong balance sheet.

Iowa- In one weeks time, the Good Captain has brought in a life coach and lost to Wanny, that is a Dick Fuld type of week. The Hawkeyes are a team that is one running back injury away from a complete meltdown on offense. A fanbase that always overvalues their team is still predicting a 10-2 season, but the wheels are coming off in Iowa City. This is a team you want to play late, once their spirit is broken. The Ballcarrier says: Short and double up on the bet if they beat the Cats, because the faithful will still be talking Rose Bowl.

Michigan State- This is my team with the highest upside in the Big Ten. Javon Ringer is a stud, and if Hoyer can make any plays and show marked improvement in the passing game, this is a team you dont want to play. Dantonio will be a force tobe reckoned with in the future. The Ballcarrier says: Strong Buy.

Minnesota- Brewster's team is much improved over last year, but they are abought to meet the buzzsaw. This is their lose small year. They will be competative, and put some points up on people, but the Big Ten will wear them down. The Ballcarrier says: Long term buy

Indiana- The Hoosiers are the midmajor champs of Kentucky. Ball State, who is a very good team, layed the wood on Lynch's crew in a statement game. Basically, if Lewis cant beat you with his feet, they are done. The Hoosiers have no running game outside of the QB, and Lewis is highly overrated as a passer. IU thought they had turned the corner, but I think they are really regressing to the mean. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued/ Sell

Purdue- As the sun sets on the Joe Tiller era, Purdue has become a soft middle of the pack team in drastic need for a fresh idea infusion. Curtis Painter is a bad version of Kyle Orten. I do'nt see Purdue matching up well with a lot of Big Ten teams, but they should be able to beat Notre Dame this week. The Ballcarrier says: Buy against Fat Charlie's laptop, buy sell againt the Big Ten

Northwestern- The Cats are 4-0 for the first time since the Era of Ara, but they are fools gold. CJ Bacher has not updgraged to Playstation 3, and is throwing picks left and right. The D is improved, but now that they are about to meet teams that are for the most part physically superior or equal, the Cats "D" will not seem so formidable. Also league OC's know what to expect from Hankowitz, and a decided schematic advantage is not in the offing. Another fan base that vastly overvalues their team's chances, the coming weeks will expose the Cats quicker than a Kellogg guy could structure a CDO in the first half of 07. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued


Big Ten Predictions:

Penn State over Illinois
Michigan State over Indiana
Iowa over Northwestern
Wisconsin over Michigan
Ohio State over Minnesota
Purdue over Notre Dame