Illini 0pponents- The Ghosts of the Past, Present and Future

Ghost of the Past- USC

After watching an average Org. St. team beat the Men of Troy, you have to ask yourself, that given the pure talent level that is in the USC program, and has run through that program in the recent past, has there ever been a coach that has achieved less with more than Pete Carroll?

Given the advantages that Carroll has enjoyed over the past couple of years- no pro team in LA, the decline of UCLA, the off the field (cough, cough) $upport that the LA community gives his players and recruits, and the hear no evil, see no evil university administration ( lets let a guy charged with a felony on Tuesday play on Saturday), how has he not won 5 conecutive national titles? That is a team with the talent level to do so every year, including this one, going away by a wide margin. Carroll is basically running a pro team, and he underperformed badly the past 3 years.

What would be really interesting if Carroll were to coach a team like Northwestern this year. My guess is that a 3-9 record, bottom of the conference finish would be in the offing. Carroll already showed his ineptitude in the NFL, he is now showing it at the college level.

Ghost of the Present- Penn State

All the chicken littles are applying the transitive property of margin to this weeks Illinois/ Penn State game. Penn State beat Org State by a wide margin and Org State beat USC so PSU will beat the Illini by 35....Please

Illinois needs to come out and compete against PSU, show emotion, eliminate stupid mistakes and play their game. Penn State is a good team, probably the best we will face the rest of the way. The Illini need to have a plan similiar to the OSU game last year, get the crowd out of it and go hard every play. If Illinois could get out of Happy Valley with a W, the schedule sets up real nicely the rest of the way.

One thing Zook's track record tells us, his teams will beat someone they are not supposed to, and they will lose to someone they are not supposed to. I am more concerned about the removal of the latter as a trend than the former. I see Illinois going 3-1 over the next 4 games, which in my mind puts them on track for 9-3/8-4 season.

BTW, I think this is the last time the Illini see JoePa.

Ghost of the Future- Fresno State.

Ron Guenther has been taking a beating over scheduling a home and home with Fresno State. While I agree there is little upside in playing the Bulldogs, two wins is neutral push, I am also starting to feel a groundswell of change in how AD's will have to schedule in the future given that cupcake revanue games do little for you in the grand scheme of things, and less for you if you are a team in Illinois position. No team should ever play more than 2 revanue games if you are in the upper division of a BCS conference.

If I were the Illini AD, here is how I would schedule, assuming Mizzou is more or less a permanent fixture on our schedule:

Home games 6/7 Away games 5/4 Neutral site 1

You are going to have to alternate having six and seven home games every other year. Here is how I would schedule it:

Game 1: Home Cupcake- In State- ISU/ EIU/ WIU- a tune up and a W

Game 2: Mizzou home and home- Lose the St Louis thing, better for both teams to play in their own buildings- Mizzou is a nice quality victory if you beat them coming off their recent run. 50/50 probability of a W

Game 3:Cupcake- Revanue- Middle Tenn Florida A & M etc. tune up build depth- this is your hammer/ highlight tape game 50+ points, a W

Game 4; Home and Home Lower profile BCS conf opponent or historically significant name team- - Iowa State, Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Navy, Baylor- significant name- SMU, Rice, Army- Game you will win most years, but is not embarrassing if you lose. Schedule programs that are historically inferior to yours. Occasionaly, a Rutgers type success will emerge, but I will take my chances. 80% probability of a W


So basically you have 3 home games 1 away game out of conference, because you alternate the
Mizzou game and the Game 4 as one home and one away. Projected record 4-0 Best Case- 3-1 Probable case

Neutral Site- Northwestern- Soldier Field- Big Ten Opener- Week 5- Every year

Create a Bowl type atmosphere every year in the last week of September or the First Week of October. Who wants to sit though a game in late November when it is horrible outside in front of 20k in Evanston? Make this game an event, it is the most underutilized opportunity on our schedule. How many alums do we have in Chicago? Forget the Washington State fiasco, a conference game insures attendence- also make it part of both teams season ticket package- Problem solved!!!

Plus, the Illini should hammer the Cats every year, make this game important again- make it the nose of the dog instead of the tail where the Illini have more downside. Plus a 4-1 or 5-0 record creates positive momentum into the season.

Conference Schedule 3/4 home 4/3 away.

Some will balk at a minimium of only 3 conference games at home, but I think this is a better scheduling philosophy. A 4-4 record which is the bare minimium threshhold in my mind for Illini Bowl participation gets us a 7-5 record. A 6-2/ 9-3/ 10-2 sets us up for a New Years day bowl. Anything higher BCS

These revanue games are increasingly becoming a joke that does little else than fill space on the schedule, we have empty seets and discounted ticket prices.

What is giving Illini fans the most heartburn this year? An uninspired flat win against the Ragin Cajuns. If IU and Minnesota's model is to go 4-0 NC/ 2-6 in the Confrence and make it to the Motor City Bowl, what good is that in the end and is that a success? Play 13, bullshit- Play in a good bowl!

Illinois is at a place where 9-3 records should be the norm. Good years should produce a BCS bowl, and down years should be a minimium 7-5/ lower bowl. I know this is above historically levels, but I feel that Illinois is in a better position for sustained success.

The Masonization of scheduling across the country produces a lot of crappy teams being bowl eligible, Illinois at this point should point higher. I think this is a schedule that gets them there in the best fashion