Penn State Week

The Illini are decided dogs heading into Happy Valley. I like it. Illinois has been a team without a real identity. It is scary to agree with the analytical insights of Bob Davie, but he is right.

In the Mizzou game our passing offense looked good. We ran the ball like we should against EIU, with a basic game plan. The game against the Ragin Cajuns was a sleep walk. Now we are on to Penn State, and everyone is wondering which team will show up?

The defense needs to solidify its first team in the Big Ten, and play with hightened emotion and effort. We still have a big talent drop off between the first and second teams on this unit. Linebacker is my biggest concern. Against PSU, we will need to have our linebackers and safeties step up play better in space than they have been to date. If that unit can solidify, and Locksley can come up with, and execute a gameplan where we get out to a lead in the first half, I like our chances.

As for PSU and the vaunted Spread HD, I am not" all in" on these guys. Look who they have played: Costal Carolina- very bad. Syracuse- worst BCS conference team in the country. Temple- long term, should drop football bad, and the OSU Beavers, bad Pac Ten team. I think every team in the Big Ten would be 4-0 against that slate. That said, PSU has smoked them all, but you wonder what will happen when the see a talent upgrade. Plus Joe Pa and his coaches do'nt really impress me when it comes to game planning.

In a nutshell, I think Illinois is currently undervalued due to the non- emotion/ underperformance in the ULL game, and PSU is overvalued due to a weak schedule. PSU has a decided atvantage playing at home, and I think the game will be closer than the betting line indicates.

5 things I want to see:

Rejus getting the ball down the field, the bubble screen is a poorly executed running play

If we have third and one ditch the gun unless Juice is going to carry it

Donsay Hardeman and Jeff Cumberland

Josh Brent not making stupid penalties going forward

Verticle passing like Mizzou- Duvault and Judson streching the field, with Rejus dragging the mid range route with Uh Oh as the safety valve


5 things I dont want to see:

Offensive line contining to struggle

Stupid penalties in crucial situations

Continued emotional flatness- this is the Big Ten boys

Poor technique on LB/ Safety drops in coverage

Bill LeMoinier

Predictions:

PSU 27 Illini 21

Illini record in first half of Big Ten 3-1

General Big Ten thoughts:

Ohio State- Now that Terrell is #1 and Beannie is "supposedly" back in the saddle, things are good in Buckeyeland-----not----Terrell will be good at the QB position for the Bucks in the future, but he is an accident waiting to happen right now. His current throwing motion is a step above that of a girl. Terrell will have more int's than TD's by the end of the year. The Buckeye faithful think the Big Ten will be a walk, but I see two losses for The Vest and his minions. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued

Wisconsin- You get what you expect with the Badgers. Good road win at Fresno State in a trap game (Why Ron Guenther Why?), but the annual weardown of PJ Hill is just starting for the softest big time player in the Big Ten. The Badgers will continue to do what they do, but are prone to losing the big games and those on the road. Bielma is the most overated coach in the Big Ten. The Ballcarrier says: Hold

Penn State- Clearly Joe Pa's boy's are better than last year and are one of the favorites for the conference title, but who have they played? Joe Pa is always subject to being outschemed, but the talent is there- The Ballcarrier says: Buy the team, but hedge the Spread HD

Michigan- Dick Rod will get it done someday in A2, but this is the year to get your licks in. Wrong players for this scheme will lead to a sub .500 record, but the Weasles will rise up and sting someone at the top half of the league. Is it me or is Sam McGuffie, the white Rocky Harvey?-The Ballcarrier says: Restructuring with a strong balance sheet.

Iowa- In one weeks time, the Good Captain has brought in a life coach and lost to Wanny, that is a Dick Fuld type of week. The Hawkeyes are a team that is one running back injury away from a complete meltdown on offense. A fanbase that always overvalues their team is still predicting a 10-2 season, but the wheels are coming off in Iowa City. This is a team you want to play late, once their spirit is broken. The Ballcarrier says: Short and double up on the bet if they beat the Cats, because the faithful will still be talking Rose Bowl.

Michigan State- This is my team with the highest upside in the Big Ten. Javon Ringer is a stud, and if Hoyer can make any plays and show marked improvement in the passing game, this is a team you dont want to play. Dantonio will be a force tobe reckoned with in the future. The Ballcarrier says: Strong Buy.

Minnesota- Brewster's team is much improved over last year, but they are abought to meet the buzzsaw. This is their lose small year. They will be competative, and put some points up on people, but the Big Ten will wear them down. The Ballcarrier says: Long term buy

Indiana- The Hoosiers are the midmajor champs of Kentucky. Ball State, who is a very good team, layed the wood on Lynch's crew in a statement game. Basically, if Lewis cant beat you with his feet, they are done. The Hoosiers have no running game outside of the QB, and Lewis is highly overrated as a passer. IU thought they had turned the corner, but I think they are really regressing to the mean. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued/ Sell

Purdue- As the sun sets on the Joe Tiller era, Purdue has become a soft middle of the pack team in drastic need for a fresh idea infusion. Curtis Painter is a bad version of Kyle Orten. I do'nt see Purdue matching up well with a lot of Big Ten teams, but they should be able to beat Notre Dame this week. The Ballcarrier says: Buy against Fat Charlie's laptop, buy sell againt the Big Ten

Northwestern- The Cats are 4-0 for the first time since the Era of Ara, but they are fools gold. CJ Bacher has not updgraged to Playstation 3, and is throwing picks left and right. The D is improved, but now that they are about to meet teams that are for the most part physically superior or equal, the Cats "D" will not seem so formidable. Also league OC's know what to expect from Hankowitz, and a decided schematic advantage is not in the offing. Another fan base that vastly overvalues their team's chances, the coming weeks will expose the Cats quicker than a Kellogg guy could structure a CDO in the first half of 07. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued


Big Ten Predictions:

Penn State over Illinois
Michigan State over Indiana
Iowa over Northwestern
Wisconsin over Michigan
Ohio State over Minnesota
Purdue over Notre Dame