This Weeks Predictions

This Week's Big Ten Picks and Predictions

Illinois over Indiana 45-17

Ron Zook's back is to the wall in Champaign and the Illini take out their angst on the Hobbling Hoosiers. Indiana is in free fall, and Kellen Lewis is supposedly hurt. The Illini stay on step ahead of the boogieman in this one. Ron Zook better have given his charges a wake up call, anfd the Hoosiers are the right medicine to set the table for the rest of the season.

OSU over MSU 24-21.

Game of the week in the Big Ten


Iowa over Wisconsin 24-10



Penn State over Michigan 44-10



Northwestern over Purdue-35-31



Last Weeks Big Ten Record:4 -1
Season Record: 11-4

Back from the brink

The best thing you can do when you see a really bad accident is to get away from it and not think about it.

Then you collect your thoughts and hopefully gain some perspective.

Unfortunately, my thoughts haven't changed at all from Saturday afternoon.

Ron Zook and the Illini laid an egg of epic proportions. This is the type of game that got Zook into trouble down at Florida. I have said all along that Zook will bring you some great victories that are out of left field, OSU last year is an example. But also promanent in the Zookian scheme of the universe is that he will bring you an epic shitfest, where you are left wondering, "Does this guy know what he is doing?"

The Minnesota game was Zook's David.

500+ yards of offense/ 8 trips into Minnesota territory yielding 6 points / 2 turnovers deep in our end of the field/ In ability to convert on 2nd and short, 3rd and short and 4th and short/ Special teams miscues only rivaled by those of the Bears. This was a game the Illini should have won by 3 td's and we get are asses beat?

(Note to Locks and Zook, they couldnt stop us deep down the middle of the field, make the call and the play. If an idiot like me can see that why can't guys getting paid the type of jack like they do see it?)

Zook is what he is, he hasn't learned from his mistakes. He pulls the same ol' cowboy crap at inoppurtune times that he always has. I can live with that, just don't fucking lose to Minnesota, at home, on Homecoming.

End of Rant

This Week's Big Ten Picks and Predictions

Illinois over Minnesota 28-17

The Illini shake the upstart Gopher's after three quarters. Illinois establishes the running game and wins the time of possession battle 35-25. Average production on the stat line: Juice 175 yds passing, 60 yds rushing 1 int. Dufrene 95 yards- Benn will go over a 100 yds receiving and limited production from Cumberland and Uh Oh. Benn will take one to the house in special teams. This is a game the Illini will grind out and win in unspectacular fashion. Illinois will have a red zone turnover this game. I hope I'm wrong but I think the Illini come out a little sluggish early in this one. Weber and Decker will move the ball early before being shut down.

MSU over NU 35-21. Sparty and Javon Ringer don't settle for field goals but get touchdowns in the red zone against the Cats. Way to much Wildcat love going around the Chicago area this week. This is the week the Cats are exposed talent wise on D. One wild card in this one is that 3 Michigan State starting DB's are dinged up. Dantonio is not saying how bad it is, so if all 3 are out the game could be more of a shootout. Also, Sutton didn't practice yesterday. If that guy is hobbled it always seems to be worse than reported and his production goes down. The Cats are way overvalued and this is the week the bubble pops.

Penn State over Wisconsin 31- 21 JoePa's boys keep the train running by smacking the Badgers up in Camp Randall. Bret Bielema changes quarterbacks and Clay emerges as the feature back over the overrated P.J. Hill. The Spread HD slows a little this week, as the Penn State D scores or sets up points on two occasions. The Badger's legendary home field advantage is being unwound faster than a Lehman Brothers Credit Default Swap. Jump Around!!!!

Iowa over Indiana 14-7 Two teams on a downward trend battle it out so their fan bases can continue living the dream of "Christmas in Detroit" Thigpen of IU is a home run threat, but Kellen "The more I see the more I do" Lewis continues to have more of the most fundamentally unsound turnovers, which doom the Hoosiers. Shon Green will pile up the yards as quickly as he piles up missed classes, but the offensive brain trust of Ricky Christensen, Jeff Stanzi, Kevin Ferentz, and Kirk O' Keefe will keep it close for the Hoosiers.

Ohio State over Purdue-52-17 The Buckeyes finally get sick of underachieving and lay the wood on the Boilers. Tiller continues his journey down to Leon Burtnettland.

Michigan over Toledo 38-14 Tough guy Dick Rod challenges the Weasels, thus toying with Michigan fan's emotions, getting them all puffy before an even more brutal fall against Penn State the following week. Toledo's coach scores huge on the Zingerman's deli tray, so the trip is not a total loss for the Rockets.

Last Weeks Record: 4-1
Season Record: 7-3

Tim Brewster

So Tim Brewster is coming back to Memorial Stadium as the head coach of the Golden Gophers. Tim Brewster, one of the cornerstones, of the great 83 team, made no bones about his desire to be the head coach at his alma mater. I was a Brewster backer after RT was let go, but from the available field of candidates. I think Ron Guenther made the right call in Zook. Tim hadn't learned on someone elses dime so to speak, and I don't know if he could have survived a year like he did last year at Minnesota at Illinois. Also, I think you can get players into Minnesota that you cant at Illinois. So I think the deal probably worked pretty well for both parties based on the Gophers record this year.

That said, I really think Tim is positioned to do well in the Twin Cities. Even though he got off to a brutal start last year, if Brewster can get the Gophers to a bowl this year, he is on the right track and all will be forgotten. My guess is if Brewster can get the Gophers to a Capital One type bowl in the future. If he does that and beats one of the top teams in the conference, he will become a fairly hot coaching commodity for a bigger job. He is a guy that I feel can really sell a program. Tim will be smart enough to jump from Minnesota, if they stage a Rutgers type run. (I bet Schiano is kicking himself right now) I just don't see Tim at Minnesota for the long haul. My guess is 5-6 years get the program competitive, open the new stadium, get to a Jan 1. bowl and then move on to bigger job probably in the Big 12, a Texas A & M type job.


Minnesota Thoughts

• I watched the IU -Minnesota game and was impressed with both Weber and Decker. Then I thought that in spite of all the yards those 2 put up, they only scored 1 TD. They put up 16 points many times with a short field. This, against Indiana, who is not exactly the second coming of the 85 Bears. I think Minnesota is one of those move it between the 20's teams that will bog down in the red zone against Big Ten competition. They scored 7 on OSU, before two late TD's in garbage time. I think if Illinois can get pressure on Weber, and hold Decker in check, Illinois can have some success on D against this offense.
• Given the stable of backs that Minnesota had during the Mason years Barber III, Maroney etc., isn't it odd that Minnesota has no current running game to speak of?
• Eric Decker is a great receiver, I like the way he finds an open spot in the zone and just sits down there. If there is an equivalent of the box and one zone d for football I would run it. Put Vontae as a spy on Decker jack him at the line and dog him all over the field. I think he is the only play maker on Minnesota who can beat the Illini. Weber will hopefully be neutralized by pressure and the porous Gopher line.
• The Metrodome will gladly be retired after this season as the home of the Gophers. Is there a worse college football environment in America than the Metrodome? Their new stadium looks pretty sweet, kind of a throwback to their old one.
• Did any team hold better and get away with it than the Gophers under Mason?
• Minnesota should pass a law against all gold or all maroon uniforms. Those things are crimes against humanity. That said I would like the Illini to break out an orange top/ blue pants combo at some juncture. That's the only Illini uniform combo, I don't think I have ever seen.

10 Faulknerian Random Thoughts

• One of Hank "The Hammer" Paulson's mentors was none other than my former neighbor, Bob Blackman. In fact he endowed the Dartmouth football head coaching position in Blackman's name to the tune of $2 million. I find it a little bit scary that the man entrusted to restore American capitalism through temporary socialism, was shaped by the same guy who couldn't remember his players names at Illinois. I guess there is some sort of cosmic symmetry in that Paulsen is attempting execute from deep in the Blackman playbook by callling the same cross field lateral on a kickoff that Lonnie Perrin and George Uremovitch succesfully pulled off in one of my first Illini games, only this time it is with the American capital markets and economy. At least his point guy on TARP is an Illini grad.
• The Steve Feagin news really bothered me. I felt kind of dirty for a few seconds that I ever rooted for the guy while he was in the O & B. I guess it shows that for every Howard Griffith, who carries our name high in life, there will always be someone there to sully it. Also who was the idiot at the DIA who put the clip of Harry Goisier leading the Illini onto the field in the History of Illinois football video that was shown at the Rededication game? That is one guy you want to forget was ever associated with the program. At least he went to Michigan also so he was not ours alone.
• I like Ron Turner as a football coach. I didn't always like him as a recruiter or program manager, but I always felt he represented us with class, and was really effective when he had the players, like in 01. I think the Bears are going to win the NFC North, because Turner's offense will continue to be productive, despite what the preseason prognosis was. He has more talent than we thought, and RT generally does pretty well in that position. I also think Harry Hiestedt has done a pretty good job so far this year. I also like the fact that I can appear much smarter than I am to my fellow Bear fans when I can say the is going to run this play or that play. It goes to show you that if a football mope like me knows whats coming, an NFL DC probably does also, and that the real game is on the player's, their talent, and their ability to execute.
• Why do I have more angst going into the Minnesota game at home than I did against Michigan on the road? I think the Illini win, but that this game will be closer than the Michigan game. You know Brewster is going to have his guys up emotionally and I think Timmy has a big chip on this shoulder coming in to Memorial Stadium for the first time. I hope we don't come out flat. This game can't be last seasons Iowa game. Also I think we should make Brewster wear his Illinois Renaissance throwback while coaching on Saturday.
• I think Troy Pollard is going to be a much bigger factor over the next two games. I also think that Regus is going to take one to the house on a kickoff or punt.
• With our move to the BTN, why are we still playing so many 11:00 am games? I thought we would move up to a couple 2:30 games. I hate 11:00 am games because it is a grind to get down on time from Chicago with my game day crew. It's like herding cats. I always feel rushed up until the time we get into the stadium. I do like the tailgating afterwards but getting down to CU is a bitch.
• Can you imagine trying to tackle Jeff Cumberland in the open field?
• Jeff Allen has done a great job, given his youth and inexperience over the last 2 weeks.
• Speaking of the Big Ten Network, Charissa Thompson looks much better as a blond. She was sporting a dark haired bottled look that didn't quite get it done last week at the IU - Minnesota game. A kind of a 2 am in a bar near Mattoon kind of look, if you will.
• You know your old when you vividly recall the Kent Kitzman 57 carry pounding the Gophers put on the Illini back in the Moeller years, '77 I think. That guy ran wild that day.

Michigan Recap

The Michigan game was a must win for the Illini. The went into the Big Shithouse and got it done. Juice played with the up most poise, and our playmakers/ skill position guys got it done. Most importantly the team didn't panic when they went down 11 in Q1. This game reminded me in a lot of ways of the 01 Purdue game. I think it shows that some of our team leaders are stepping up and embracing their roles. I have said all along that Illinois was the better than their record indicated. Now we need to play hard, avoid a let down with two inferior opponents from a talent perspective.

6 Good Things...

• Seeing a half empty Big House with time left on the clock.
• No turnovers
• The Illini players and coaching staff not panicking when we went down 14-3.
• O Line blowing up the Michigan D line in the 2nd half.
• Cumberland down the field in space is never a bad thing.
• Executing the offensive gameplan to our strengths. Locks called a good game, I especially liked his interview after the game where he is a dead ringer visually and vocally for Tone Loc. Hasta la vista Babbbyyyy.....

5 Bad Things.....

• Dere and Vontae need to live up to their reps. For all the crap Martez took, those two need to step up just as much if not more
• Continued struggles in the first half in the kick return game in the first half. You cant give up that kind of field position.
• Down the field blocking, holding and blocks in the back are negating too many positive plays
• Minor point but, lets get the TO first, before you try to scoop and score
• When are our DB's going to pick off a pass?

5 Big Ten Thoughts....

• WTF was Ferentz thinking on that 4th down call? Ferentz made some real boneheaded coaching calls in the MSU game
• Bret Bielema once again showing he is the second coming of Lou Tepper circa 1994
• Eric Decker of Minnesota is the type of receiver every team wished they had
• I like Michigan State, but Dantonio has away of letting inferior teams hang around til the end that will come back to bite him in the ass
• Isn't the Trib's Teddy Greenstein a little early in writing mouth breathing school girl in spring comparison articles between NU's 95 team and the overrated 08 team.

Illini to treat Ann Arbor like the whore she is

The Illini are +2.5 dogs heading into A2. I think Michigan is getting a lot of love because Bret Bielema is a really bad coach. The second half collapse of the Badger's was the second most epic coaching gift/ lay down I have ever seen. Number 1 is still the Greg Schiano/ Rutgers effort against Illinois in 05. Michigan makes those mistakes against Illinois, MSU, OSU , or Penn State and they get buried.

Illinois is getting beat up pretty well in every corner of the college football universe because we have lost two games, basically on the road. What people forget is that is that both Mizzou and PSU are ranked #5 &#6 in the polls respectively. Illinois is a legitimate top18-25 team, and most teams in the country would be 0-2 against those two teams. Plus, Illinois has had massive breakdowns in the kickoff return game, something that is fixable in my opinion going forward, that contributed to those losses.

Once thing that should help the Illini this weekend is that Michigan is a highly efficent, turnover machine . If our guys can be positive in that battle, we will win.

Michigan has a good, but not imposing "D", and their offense is god awful. If we can stretch the field a little bit in the vertical passing game, especially early, I think some things will definitely be there in the running game. All Wisconsin had to do was make one play down the field to loosen things up in the second half.

I expect our D will look better, not so much because we have done anything drastically to improve it, but because of the combination of: 1) Michigan's inept offense will make it look better, and 2) we will play with the emotion that was absent in the two revenue games.

I expect the Illini to get out to a 21-7 lead, Michigan will tighten the game up, and then we will score both on offense and on D, or via a set up by the D late.

Last year we got out to the start we needed against a much more talented Michigan team, but our immaturity and not having been there before showed. I expect the Illini to play a good game this weekend and surprise a lot of people. Illinois is way undervalued & thanks to the Badger's ineptitude- Michigan is way overvalued.

Prediction Illinois 31-17

Loren Tate would tell you that this is not possible, and will have some back to Tom Harmon Era refrence to prove it, but this is not the Michigan we know and hate. This is the football verison Tommy Amaker Michigan.

5 things I want to see:

Jeff Cumberland touches down the field or on an end around

Less than 2 turnovers, have to be + in this game

Vontae and Dere playing their technique by the book

No BS holding calls, legitimate or not, that kill drives

Playing with a high level of emotion, but not being manic like last year that resulted in a lot of negative plays and penalties

5 things I don't want to see:

Bill LeMoinier- he will find a way through replay to screw Illinois

Kickoff return breakdowns- no points or points set up in this part of the game is critical

Dufrene running tentative because of injury, or being ineffective because of it

Continued poor technique on LB/ Safety drops in coverage. Martez has been taking a beating this week, I went back and watched the tape. He didn't play as bad as I first thought. The whole LB unit needs to step up, I expect to see a lot of nickle this week.

The Cowboy Zook persona needs to remain in Champaign, no high risk short yardage situations. Ron needs to play everything by the book on short yardage and extra points.


General Big Ten thoughts:

Ohio State- Beanie is still hurt, I don't care what they say. OSU has struggled against Wisconsin, but the Bucks will win this game, as people continue to build up the legend that is Terrell Pryor. Terrell Prior is going to be great someday, but his throwing motion is pathetic, and it will cost the Buck in a game this year in terms of picks. This wont be the game. The OSU D is less than impressive this year, APB for James Lauernitis. But the Vest gets it done in Mad Town vs. a highly overrated Badgers team and coaching staff. The Ballcarrier says: Hold

Wisconsin- Evridge is awful. Bielema is awful , that combination along with the overrated OC Paul Chryst (someone called him the Best in the Country in one preview show I was watching, it could have been DiNardo, nevermind), spells doom for the Badgers. The Ballcarrier says: Sell, turn those machines back on and SeLLLLLL

Penn State- The Spread HQ is the real deal. I can see the Lions running the table in JoePas last rodeo. Best team in the Big Ten. I like the QB and their 1-2 running back punch. The Ballcarrier says: Strong Buy

Michigan- The Wolverines have had their moment in the sun, now back to the grind.
.500 the rest of the way home The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued.

Iowa- Iowa is the Lehman Bros circa June of the Big Ten, they blew a big lead against the Cats and now the faithful are thinking doom and gloom and unsure if they can ride it out. Norm Parker's D will be effective against Sparty, but no offense will doom the Hawks. The Ballcarrier says: Short

Michigan State- Two things concern me with Sparty: Jevon Ringer is racking up carries like no ones business, and Hoyer cant make a play for his life down the field in the passing game. If Ringer starts to break down, and MSU reverts to their usual late season swoon, the Spartans will start to falter. MSU needs to be 6-1 before hosting OSU. The Ballcarrier says: Buy.

Minnesota- This is a statement game for the Brew Crew. If they can beat IU, they will be showing progress. I like what Tim is doing in the Twin Cities. The Ballcarrier says: Long term buy

Indiana- Huge game for IU, if they lose to Minnesota, the Hoosiers could go into a death spiral. I think they are actually a better team with Chappell at QB than Kellen Lewis. Kellen Lewis is not the guy I want running my team, character wise, if they go into a slide. My guess is Bill Lynch knows that also. The Hoosiers also might start hitting the wall regarding the Hep situation. The Ballcarrier says: Sell

Purdue- This team is running on fumes. This team is going down faster than Barney Frank at the House Page Christmas party. Curtis Painter might be replaced, as he has been highly ineffective, and you have to wonder if Joe Tiller is already fishing mentally in Wyoming. They looked awful against ND. The Ballcarrier says Sell

Northwestern- Idle this week, Cats fans will have to be content to continue to apply purple lube and play with themselves that they are a real contender in the Big Ten. I saw one of the computer polls had the Cats in the Top Ten... please. This team is not anywhere close to being in the Top 25. Probably not in the Top 50. The Northwestern D is the Bizarro Superman of Illinois D. Whereas, Illinois is a statistical doormat due to playing the highly productive offenses of PSU and Mizzou, Northwestern's resurgent D will be exposed when they actually play someone with real offensive talent. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued

Big Ten Predictions: Last Weeks Big Ten Record 3-2/ 3-2 Season
Illinois over Michigan 31-17
Indiana over Minnesota 34-28
Michigan State over Iowa 24-10
Ohio State over Wisconsin 28-14
Penn State over Purdue 41-10

Michigan Game

I like the Illini's chances in the Michigan game in bringing home the W. I think it sets up real nice for us. Here are my reasons:

• For all the talk/angst of restructuring the D, lets face it we played two of the top offenses in the country and competed with them. Penn State is going to score a lot of points, and Mizzou is going to score even more. Michigan is not in the same universe as either of those offenses. If we can hold the Wolverenes to under 20. We win. I think it will happen.
• Offense- we are due for a game where we put it all together, run, pass, game plan and execution. Michigan's D is good up front, but I am not impressed with their secondary. Wisconsin's QB is bad- Scott Weaver bad. If that guy can make a play anywhere, the Badgers win going away. Plus Bret Beilma is Lou Tepper with a bigger cushion. Mark my words.
• So we have Michigan, all puffy from a gift from the Badgers, and we have the Illini reeling from a game with PSU, in an electric atmosphere where 98% of BCS teams would lose. This is a game where the good isnt as good as it seems and the bad isnt as bad. The fact that Michigan is favored + 2.5 shows the power of the Michigan name, and discounts how god awful they have been prior to the second half of last week. This line is totally mispriced.
• The Big House will seem like Dyche Stadium compared to Beaver Stadium. This is the week Illinois puts it together, the Illini are way oversold.
• Special teams is the area that needs to step up, most notably kickoff coverage. If we continue to have breakdowns here, all bets are off. You cant give up any more momentum changing kickoff returns. Zook needs to fix this NOW!!!!

Prediction: Illini 31 Wolverenes 17

Michigan

I truly despise the University of Michigan and their football program. I loathe their fight song and their stupid fake winged helmets. I hate the "Big House", the most overrated stadium in college football.

I think it is because of the pure arrogance the institution exhibits, I always think to myself, "If you guys are the "Leaders and Best" explain Detroit".

Michigan has been a highly successful program over the past 50 years. I think Dick Rod will get them turned around in the short term but the glory will be brief. As fickle Rich will turn on the Wolverines and bolt for greener pastures. This is of course once his loan for his buyout to WVU is repaid.

Why? I think the University of Michigan and their athletic programs are in for a period of long decline compared to history because capital resources and budgets will be constrained for years to come and Michigan will not be able to keep up with the Jones. Unfortunately their arrogant fan base will not recogonize their diminished place in the cosmos and demand what they view as their birthright.

Michigan has become a larger version of West Virginia, Dick Rod just doesnt know it yet.

Why is Michigan more like West Virginia than Illinois, Wisconsin or Minnesota?

The State of Michigan is economic free fall. How do economics and football interact? In a very subtle way.

Big time football is a capital intensive business. For years, the University of Michigan enjoyed a very beneficial relationship with the auto industry. Population trends, jobs, money, capital investment flowed freely and positivelyto the benefit of the U of M, and the athletes came and prospered in a stable middle class, or were in the state as remnants of it. Michigan benefited from the great migration from the south, and it will be harmed by it converse which is taking place under the surface for the past 15 years. Drive around the North side of Chicago and count the bars flying U of M and MSU flags. A lot of their alumni are in Chicago, why? - because they can get a job, which they cant do in Detroit.

The world that the U of M prospered in their home state does not exist anymore, and it never will again. Michigan will still be a good school and will still draw a sizeable following, but it cant offer athletes the advantages it has historically.

In the future, a growing state population, with a stable economic forecast will be of up most importance. I think Illinois is positioned fairly well in this regard in the grand scheme of things.
Michigan is not. Dick Rod might win a few games with the spread, but the long term trends and economic realities tell you that the sustained success that Michigan has enjoyed is as distant as a $30.00 per hour union job in Flint.

Mendenhall

Sorry to see RM5 got hurt last night, and is likely out for the season, or for an extended time. Even with all the BS between the Mendenhall family and Zook and Illinois, I still root for RM5 just as hard as I did when he wore the Orange & Blue. I thought Rashard looked pretty good in there for the Steelers, and I liked the fact the took on 2 hard blitzes. I hope Rashard fully heals and goes on to a long productive NFL career.

I also hope that Rashard can heal his relationship with Illini Nation. Whatever went down between the Mendenhalls and Zook, neither side benefits from it.

I have heard both sides of the tale which has been rehashed and assigned blame to a fault, and am reminded of the Bobby Evans' quote from "The Kid Stays in the Picture", " There are three sides to every story. My side, your side, and the truth. And no one is lying. Memories shared serve each one differently"

Zook is the coach of the team and has an objective resposibility to put those on the field who are the best players, and give Illinois the best shot of winning. So I understand his position in the matter.

Mrs Mendenhall is an advocate for he sons, she is not objective, nor should she be. Having kids who play sports, I understand that parents are not objective, which is a big part of the problem in youth sports. Most parents just do'nt go a spublic and vocal as Ms. Mendenhall.

The problem here is in the execution and the communication of what went down, it worked for nobody, all parties lost on the deal.

I may be naive but I would love to see Zook invite Rashard back to campus this fall for an Illini game, try to get to a common ground and productively heal and move on for both parties. It may not seem like it, but both parties will benefit greatly in the long run by being on the same side.

Penn State Recap

The Penn State game played out pretty much as I thought it would with the exception of the TD on the kickoff return, which I will speak of later. Where does that leave the 2-2 Illini?

About where I thought we would be.

Lets face reality, we lost competative games to two of the top eight teams in the country. We are a Top 18- 25 team. Also, both of those teams have top five high octane offenses, which hurts Illinois disproportionately.

In my mind, the Illini needed to go 2-1 against the trioka of Michigan, Wisconsin, & Penn State. Right now, Penn State is the best team in the Big Ten. Wisconsin is much worse than I thought they would be, and Beilma is arguably the worst coach in the Big Ten. Michigan is about what I thought they would be, a .500 team. Both, Michigan and Wisconsin have bad offenses, which helps the Illini. Ohio State, I had chalked as an Illini loss, have the Bucks and the Lions switched places?

I still think we go 2-1 in this three game test, but Michigan is a chip on the sholder statement game for the Illini- on the road, in the Big Outhouse. Illinois needs to bring it and define themselves.

The 2008 version of the Weasels is not any where near PSU, Mizzou, or USC in terms of talent or ability. I think the Illini get it done. Let party like its 1999!!!!

5 Good Things...

Playing competatively with PSU in an amazing game day environment

Benn down the field

Dufrene and the running game played well

O Line was competative, looked much better than the first three games.

The plays are there to be had, its just time to execute!!!!

6 Bad Things

Kickoffs for TD's at a time when Big Mo is changing......WTF? Remember Big Mo is a fickle mistress. Lets kick it to guys who can take it to the house, after we have had momentum changing drives, thats a sound strategy. Instant Buzz Kill. Lets be smart about kickoffs, and if we need a few more playmakers out there, determine the risk/return of injury, but right now we are paying out huger claims on this, get playmakers on the f'in field if we need to. If need be, squib it after these big plays, it keeps momentum in check, and we live to fight on. Also, find a kicker who can get it in the endzone consistantly, everyone else seems to have one why not us?

This coverage unit needs a complete overhaul, bailout and fix, Hank Paulson style right now!!!!

Linebacker play- this unit is not working. Tez has been discussed to death. I hate to say it, but play him like Simeon Rice/ DE in passing downs and adjust the coverages? Pressure could help bail out alot. Do you move Carson to MLB, move Brit outside, and move Tez, to an area where he has less coverage responsibility, I dont know but this unit needs to figure it out real quick.

Vontae's freelancing- I am afraid he is never going to change

Cumberland's lack of touches- you have to get this guy the ball in space down the field

Defensive Scheme- if we need to run a 4-2-5 lets do it full time. This Cover 2 type bs is getting us killed against good offenses, they just gash us in the same places time and time again.

Cowboy Zook - Zook needs to stop the cowboy stuff in Q3, I know Guenther has talked to him about it, but Zook needs to have someone in this ear in the third quarter as a voice of reason because that is where a lot of his bonehead coaching moves seem to happen. Zook never seems to correctly price the downside vs. the upside risk during this point of the game.


5 Big Ten thoughts

Northwestern is the worst 5-0 team in the history of college football

Has any player in recent memory depreciated faster than Curtis Painter. He is the leading canidate for the Wagner Lester Award

Were Beilma and the Wisconsin QB channeling their inner Lou Tepper and Mark Hoekstra in A2 on Saturday. Love the one and a half step drop, nice techique there Bucky

How to beat Michigan State... Put 8 in the box to stop Ringer and pull a Bobby Conrad and put a Duracell battery on you shoulder and say to Hoyer, "I dare ya to knock it off" by beating me down the field in the verticle passing game. My guess is he wont. For all the crap regarding accuracy Juice has taken, he is Six Sigma Blackbelt compared to Hoyer.

Ohio State, Beanie is still hurt and my guess is will be all season. Terrell Prior will have a 3 to 4 turnover game. The question is it against MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin or Penn State, and the Bucks potentially lose, or does he get away with it against Purdue or Northwestern and it is a learning experience in a Bucks win.

Illini 0pponents- The Ghosts of the Past, Present and Future

Ghost of the Past- USC

After watching an average Org. St. team beat the Men of Troy, you have to ask yourself, that given the pure talent level that is in the USC program, and has run through that program in the recent past, has there ever been a coach that has achieved less with more than Pete Carroll?

Given the advantages that Carroll has enjoyed over the past couple of years- no pro team in LA, the decline of UCLA, the off the field (cough, cough) $upport that the LA community gives his players and recruits, and the hear no evil, see no evil university administration ( lets let a guy charged with a felony on Tuesday play on Saturday), how has he not won 5 conecutive national titles? That is a team with the talent level to do so every year, including this one, going away by a wide margin. Carroll is basically running a pro team, and he underperformed badly the past 3 years.

What would be really interesting if Carroll were to coach a team like Northwestern this year. My guess is that a 3-9 record, bottom of the conference finish would be in the offing. Carroll already showed his ineptitude in the NFL, he is now showing it at the college level.

Ghost of the Present- Penn State

All the chicken littles are applying the transitive property of margin to this weeks Illinois/ Penn State game. Penn State beat Org State by a wide margin and Org State beat USC so PSU will beat the Illini by 35....Please

Illinois needs to come out and compete against PSU, show emotion, eliminate stupid mistakes and play their game. Penn State is a good team, probably the best we will face the rest of the way. The Illini need to have a plan similiar to the OSU game last year, get the crowd out of it and go hard every play. If Illinois could get out of Happy Valley with a W, the schedule sets up real nicely the rest of the way.

One thing Zook's track record tells us, his teams will beat someone they are not supposed to, and they will lose to someone they are not supposed to. I am more concerned about the removal of the latter as a trend than the former. I see Illinois going 3-1 over the next 4 games, which in my mind puts them on track for 9-3/8-4 season.

BTW, I think this is the last time the Illini see JoePa.

Ghost of the Future- Fresno State.

Ron Guenther has been taking a beating over scheduling a home and home with Fresno State. While I agree there is little upside in playing the Bulldogs, two wins is neutral push, I am also starting to feel a groundswell of change in how AD's will have to schedule in the future given that cupcake revanue games do little for you in the grand scheme of things, and less for you if you are a team in Illinois position. No team should ever play more than 2 revanue games if you are in the upper division of a BCS conference.

If I were the Illini AD, here is how I would schedule, assuming Mizzou is more or less a permanent fixture on our schedule:

Home games 6/7 Away games 5/4 Neutral site 1

You are going to have to alternate having six and seven home games every other year. Here is how I would schedule it:

Game 1: Home Cupcake- In State- ISU/ EIU/ WIU- a tune up and a W

Game 2: Mizzou home and home- Lose the St Louis thing, better for both teams to play in their own buildings- Mizzou is a nice quality victory if you beat them coming off their recent run. 50/50 probability of a W

Game 3:Cupcake- Revanue- Middle Tenn Florida A & M etc. tune up build depth- this is your hammer/ highlight tape game 50+ points, a W

Game 4; Home and Home Lower profile BCS conf opponent or historically significant name team- - Iowa State, Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Navy, Baylor- significant name- SMU, Rice, Army- Game you will win most years, but is not embarrassing if you lose. Schedule programs that are historically inferior to yours. Occasionaly, a Rutgers type success will emerge, but I will take my chances. 80% probability of a W


So basically you have 3 home games 1 away game out of conference, because you alternate the
Mizzou game and the Game 4 as one home and one away. Projected record 4-0 Best Case- 3-1 Probable case

Neutral Site- Northwestern- Soldier Field- Big Ten Opener- Week 5- Every year

Create a Bowl type atmosphere every year in the last week of September or the First Week of October. Who wants to sit though a game in late November when it is horrible outside in front of 20k in Evanston? Make this game an event, it is the most underutilized opportunity on our schedule. How many alums do we have in Chicago? Forget the Washington State fiasco, a conference game insures attendence- also make it part of both teams season ticket package- Problem solved!!!

Plus, the Illini should hammer the Cats every year, make this game important again- make it the nose of the dog instead of the tail where the Illini have more downside. Plus a 4-1 or 5-0 record creates positive momentum into the season.

Conference Schedule 3/4 home 4/3 away.

Some will balk at a minimium of only 3 conference games at home, but I think this is a better scheduling philosophy. A 4-4 record which is the bare minimium threshhold in my mind for Illini Bowl participation gets us a 7-5 record. A 6-2/ 9-3/ 10-2 sets us up for a New Years day bowl. Anything higher BCS

These revanue games are increasingly becoming a joke that does little else than fill space on the schedule, we have empty seets and discounted ticket prices.

What is giving Illini fans the most heartburn this year? An uninspired flat win against the Ragin Cajuns. If IU and Minnesota's model is to go 4-0 NC/ 2-6 in the Confrence and make it to the Motor City Bowl, what good is that in the end and is that a success? Play 13, bullshit- Play in a good bowl!

Illinois is at a place where 9-3 records should be the norm. Good years should produce a BCS bowl, and down years should be a minimium 7-5/ lower bowl. I know this is above historically levels, but I feel that Illinois is in a better position for sustained success.

The Masonization of scheduling across the country produces a lot of crappy teams being bowl eligible, Illinois at this point should point higher. I think this is a schedule that gets them there in the best fashion

Loren Tate

Reading Loren Tate is one of the guilty pleasures of an Illini fan. 75% of the time, I strongly disagree with him. The other 25% , I think he is dead on. Now the internet/ new media has eroded Loren's information advantage, but he is still a good read.

I dig the fact he will come at you with a Cy Vaughn and Bobby Eisner reference, as he did in his last column, when the 99% of all Illini fans have no idea who these guys are and their connection to Illini sports. Loren is like a living historian/ grudge recepticale for all the wrongs that have been done to the Illini, germanting in his East Central Illinois bubble, largely oblivious to the changes in the world going on around him.

Loren's mission statement is that all freshman should be redshirted, Illinois will never compete with Michigan and Ohio State in football, and Chicago is not part of Illinois. I disagree stongly with all these statements now more than ever, but Loren is the cranky old Uncle at thanksgiving who says I told you so.

Penn State Week

The Illini are decided dogs heading into Happy Valley. I like it. Illinois has been a team without a real identity. It is scary to agree with the analytical insights of Bob Davie, but he is right.

In the Mizzou game our passing offense looked good. We ran the ball like we should against EIU, with a basic game plan. The game against the Ragin Cajuns was a sleep walk. Now we are on to Penn State, and everyone is wondering which team will show up?

The defense needs to solidify its first team in the Big Ten, and play with hightened emotion and effort. We still have a big talent drop off between the first and second teams on this unit. Linebacker is my biggest concern. Against PSU, we will need to have our linebackers and safeties step up play better in space than they have been to date. If that unit can solidify, and Locksley can come up with, and execute a gameplan where we get out to a lead in the first half, I like our chances.

As for PSU and the vaunted Spread HD, I am not" all in" on these guys. Look who they have played: Costal Carolina- very bad. Syracuse- worst BCS conference team in the country. Temple- long term, should drop football bad, and the OSU Beavers, bad Pac Ten team. I think every team in the Big Ten would be 4-0 against that slate. That said, PSU has smoked them all, but you wonder what will happen when the see a talent upgrade. Plus Joe Pa and his coaches do'nt really impress me when it comes to game planning.

In a nutshell, I think Illinois is currently undervalued due to the non- emotion/ underperformance in the ULL game, and PSU is overvalued due to a weak schedule. PSU has a decided atvantage playing at home, and I think the game will be closer than the betting line indicates.

5 things I want to see:

Rejus getting the ball down the field, the bubble screen is a poorly executed running play

If we have third and one ditch the gun unless Juice is going to carry it

Donsay Hardeman and Jeff Cumberland

Josh Brent not making stupid penalties going forward

Verticle passing like Mizzou- Duvault and Judson streching the field, with Rejus dragging the mid range route with Uh Oh as the safety valve


5 things I dont want to see:

Offensive line contining to struggle

Stupid penalties in crucial situations

Continued emotional flatness- this is the Big Ten boys

Poor technique on LB/ Safety drops in coverage

Bill LeMoinier

Predictions:

PSU 27 Illini 21

Illini record in first half of Big Ten 3-1

General Big Ten thoughts:

Ohio State- Now that Terrell is #1 and Beannie is "supposedly" back in the saddle, things are good in Buckeyeland-----not----Terrell will be good at the QB position for the Bucks in the future, but he is an accident waiting to happen right now. His current throwing motion is a step above that of a girl. Terrell will have more int's than TD's by the end of the year. The Buckeye faithful think the Big Ten will be a walk, but I see two losses for The Vest and his minions. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued

Wisconsin- You get what you expect with the Badgers. Good road win at Fresno State in a trap game (Why Ron Guenther Why?), but the annual weardown of PJ Hill is just starting for the softest big time player in the Big Ten. The Badgers will continue to do what they do, but are prone to losing the big games and those on the road. Bielma is the most overated coach in the Big Ten. The Ballcarrier says: Hold

Penn State- Clearly Joe Pa's boy's are better than last year and are one of the favorites for the conference title, but who have they played? Joe Pa is always subject to being outschemed, but the talent is there- The Ballcarrier says: Buy the team, but hedge the Spread HD

Michigan- Dick Rod will get it done someday in A2, but this is the year to get your licks in. Wrong players for this scheme will lead to a sub .500 record, but the Weasles will rise up and sting someone at the top half of the league. Is it me or is Sam McGuffie, the white Rocky Harvey?-The Ballcarrier says: Restructuring with a strong balance sheet.

Iowa- In one weeks time, the Good Captain has brought in a life coach and lost to Wanny, that is a Dick Fuld type of week. The Hawkeyes are a team that is one running back injury away from a complete meltdown on offense. A fanbase that always overvalues their team is still predicting a 10-2 season, but the wheels are coming off in Iowa City. This is a team you want to play late, once their spirit is broken. The Ballcarrier says: Short and double up on the bet if they beat the Cats, because the faithful will still be talking Rose Bowl.

Michigan State- This is my team with the highest upside in the Big Ten. Javon Ringer is a stud, and if Hoyer can make any plays and show marked improvement in the passing game, this is a team you dont want to play. Dantonio will be a force tobe reckoned with in the future. The Ballcarrier says: Strong Buy.

Minnesota- Brewster's team is much improved over last year, but they are abought to meet the buzzsaw. This is their lose small year. They will be competative, and put some points up on people, but the Big Ten will wear them down. The Ballcarrier says: Long term buy

Indiana- The Hoosiers are the midmajor champs of Kentucky. Ball State, who is a very good team, layed the wood on Lynch's crew in a statement game. Basically, if Lewis cant beat you with his feet, they are done. The Hoosiers have no running game outside of the QB, and Lewis is highly overrated as a passer. IU thought they had turned the corner, but I think they are really regressing to the mean. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued/ Sell

Purdue- As the sun sets on the Joe Tiller era, Purdue has become a soft middle of the pack team in drastic need for a fresh idea infusion. Curtis Painter is a bad version of Kyle Orten. I do'nt see Purdue matching up well with a lot of Big Ten teams, but they should be able to beat Notre Dame this week. The Ballcarrier says: Buy against Fat Charlie's laptop, buy sell againt the Big Ten

Northwestern- The Cats are 4-0 for the first time since the Era of Ara, but they are fools gold. CJ Bacher has not updgraged to Playstation 3, and is throwing picks left and right. The D is improved, but now that they are about to meet teams that are for the most part physically superior or equal, the Cats "D" will not seem so formidable. Also league OC's know what to expect from Hankowitz, and a decided schematic advantage is not in the offing. Another fan base that vastly overvalues their team's chances, the coming weeks will expose the Cats quicker than a Kellogg guy could structure a CDO in the first half of 07. The Ballcarrier says: Overvalued


Big Ten Predictions:

Penn State over Illinois
Michigan State over Indiana
Iowa over Northwestern
Wisconsin over Michigan
Ohio State over Minnesota
Purdue over Notre Dame